Monday, February 5, 2007

Post-Announcment Iowa

Drudge is reporting that Hillary has "Jumped a to 17-Point Lead Over Edwards In Iowa Poll."

However, upon further inspection the American Research Group (ARG) polls shows little movement, if any, among the major contenders from December (before any of the major announcements) to January(post-annoucements):
January numbers:

Clinton 35%
Edwards 18%
Obama 14%
Vilsack 12%

In December, the numbers looked as follows:

Clinton 31%
Edwards 20%
Obama 10%
Vilsack 17%

The margin of error in the latest poll is +/-4%.

The biggest 'mover' in the poll, on a percentage basis, was "Undecided", which jumped from 8% to 13% (an increase of 63%). Perhaps "likely Iowan caucus goers" realize that there's still a year to go before caucusing commences.

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